Bear Markets since WWII
Depending on how one defines a bear market there have
been many sustained declines in stock prices over the past 40 years. Most
market experts consider the stock market in 'bear' phase once stocks have
sunk 20% or more from their all time highs.
Often market experts break down market phases in larger
cycles, called secular bull or bear markets. A secular bear markets is
one where the previous highs are not achieved for extended periods of
time. The Japanese stock market for example has been in a secular bear
market since late 1989, when the Nikkei Dow Jones peaked at around 39,000
points. A secular bull market can experience 20 percent declines
as long as the decline is recovered quickly and followed by new highs.
The table below represents bear markets in the United States since 1957.
Recent US Bear Markets
|
Year(s) |
Pctg.
decline |
No. of
mos. from peak to bottom |
No.
of mos. to recover 100% of loss |
P/E at |
|
1957 |
20% |
3 |
12 |
11.5 |
|
1961-62 |
29 |
6 |
14 |
14.5 |
|
1966 |
22 |
9 |
6 |
13.0 |
|
1968-70 |
37 |
18 |
22 |
15.0 |
|
1973-74 |
48 |
21 |
64 |
7.0 |
|
1980 |
22 |
2 |
4 |
6.5 |
|
1981-82 |
22 |
13 |
3 |
8.0 |
|
1987 |
34 |
2 |
23 |
13.0 |
|
1990 |
20 |
3 |
5 |
14.0 |
|
Average |
28 |
9 |
17 |
11.4 |
|
|